In January 2027, the NC Rural Center will celebrate its 40th anniversary. It’s a big deal, and we will be spending a lot of next year celebrating not just the Rural Center, but also rural North Carolina and its importance to the state. We are planning some special events and content, as well as some dedicated research to the history of rural NC.
This research will help show the significant changes to rural places since the founding of the Center in 1987. There are many ways to contextualize these changes, and we’ll visit those in the future. However, for this post, I wanted to take the Center’s definition of rural and apply it to historical and projected population data to get a sense of how rural our state was, and how rural it is expected to be in the future.
If you are not familiar (though I’m sure everybody reading this is!), the Center classifies counties into three categories based on population density as explained below. If you are interested in learning about our classifications, you can read more here.
- Rural: 250 people or fewer per square mile
- Suburban/Regional City: Between 250 and 750 people per square mile
- Urban: 750 people or more per square mile
The interactive map below shows how classifications have changed over time, from 1980 (the decade when the Center was founded) through 2040 (projected population).
By panning through the decades, the urbanization of North Carolina becomes clear. In 1980, 91 counties would have been classified as rural, with a combined population of 3.8 million people (65% of the total population). By 2020, there were 78 rural counties with a population of 3.6 million people (35% of the total population). As the projected data for 2030 and 2040 suggest, this trend toward urbanization is expected to continue. Looking at this data, there are a few things that pop out as important trends.
Rapid Growth in Central North Carolina
The vast majority of growth in the state is found in central North Carolina, specifically along the “I-85 Corridor.” This corridor refers to Interstate 85, which stretches from Charlotte to Durham before moving north to Virginia. Most of North Carolina’s major cities are found along this corridor, with five of our six urban counties located on or near it.
In 1980, you could easily identify these urban cores on the map (Charlotte, Triad, and Triangle). However, by 2000, these urban cores were connected by non-rural counties, with more counties just outside the corridor changing from rural to suburban in the years following. While many counties in our state are experiencing some growth, it is largely concentrated to this corridor, a trend that will likely continue.
Predominantly Rural Regions Remain
With growth concentrated in central North Carolina, the most rural regions of the state (western, southeastern, and northeastern) have continued to be very rural. There are hints of some developing regional cities that anchor rural economies, such as Asheville (Buncombe County) to the west, and Greenville (Pitt County) and Jacksonville (Onslow County) to the east. This localized growth has, for now, remained largely concentrated in the counties home to those regional cities. Population projections indicate these largely rural regions will remain rural in the future.
Urban Sprawl Continuing
Back in central North Carolina, we turn our focus to Wake County (home to Raleigh). Wake County has been one of the fastest-growing counties in the United States in recent years, with growth expected to continue. Given that this explosive growth is a more recent occurrence, and that it is one of the geographically largest counties in our state, much of that growth historically has been contained to Wake and neighboring Durham County.
However, signs of urban sprawl are starting to show up in nearby rural counties. Johnston County, just to the east of Wake, was one of two counties to change from rural to suburban in 2020. Lee and Harnett counties, just to the south of Wake, are expected to become suburban after the 2030 Census.
Something similar has already happened in the state around Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). In 1980, Mecklenburg was the only county classified as urban and was surrounded by counties classified as rural (except two suburban counties). By 2010, every county surrounding Mecklenburg was classified as suburban, with two projected to become urban in the future.
Raleigh is still smaller and less densely populated than Charlotte, but its growth rate means that more rural places in neighboring counties are feeling its influence. This influence will bring changes, some positive and some negative, but rural communities in the area should expect this growth to reach their doorsteps.
Questions or comments? Contact the NC Rural Center’s Research and Data Manager Dalton Bailey.